Here are the next media mergers that make the most sense

Buying Lionsgate would assist Comcast’s NBCUniversal on two completely different fronts. First, it might add extra content material to Peacock, NBCUniversal’s subscription video service. Lionsgate owns reveals together with “Mad Men,” “Orange is the New Black,” “Nashville” and “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist.” Lionsgate at the moment licenses these reveals to a seize bag of streaming providers.

Second, Lionsgate owns premium community Starz, which might match seamlessly with NBCUniversal’s choices. NBCUniversal does not have a premium community, in contrast to opponents WarnerMedia (HBO) and ViacomCBS (Showtime).

On the streaming entrance, a Starz-Peacock mixture — both collectively as one service or individually as a bundled providing — might develop NBCUniversal’s world aspirations. Starz is on monitor to have 60 million world subscribers by 2025, Chief Executive John Feltheimer said this week. Starz is already accessible in 58 completely different nations, which might give Peacock a head begin in its growth aspirations.

And Lionsgate would not price a lot, with a market capitalization of simply $3.eight billion (an an enterprise worth of about $6.four billion). If Comcast goes to maintain NBCUniversal — bucking AT&T’s resolution to surrender on vertical integration — shopping for Lionsgate could be a wise transfer to remain aggressive in the streaming wars with out breaking the financial institution.

There’s already hypothesis a few potential future merger between the newly created WarnerMedia-Discovery entity (assuming the deal closes) and NBCUniversal. Discovery’s controlling shareholder John Malone mentioned on CNBC how the mixed firm could be open to a future merger with NBCUniversal if regulatory forces would enable it.

But the divestments that may need to happen may very well be too difficult and tax-inefficient for that mixture to happen. Regulators may not enable CNN and MSNBC to be housed below one company roof. Combining Comcast’s Universal and WarnerMedia’s Warner Bros. — the No. 2 and No. 3 largest film studios by box office revenue in 2019 and 2018, the final full years of theatrical releases — may additionally be a non-starter.

The extra logical mixture could be WarnerMedia-Discovery and ViacomCBS.

Shari Redstone’s firm has a broadcast community — CBS. WarnerMedia-Discovery does not, so that’s a match. (The mixture of CBS and NBC below one roof could be one main roadblock to a ViacomCBS-NBCUniversal merger.)

Unlike NBCUniversal, ViacomCBS does not have a big cable information community. That makes retaining CNN extra viable.

While ViacomCBS additionally owns a film studio, Paramount has been a a lot smaller field workplace presence than Universal in recent times. Among world movie studios, Paramount was sixth in field workplace income in each 2018 and 2019. Putting collectively Paramount and Warner Bros. could be a neater promote for antitrust issues.

The largest complication could be if Redstone is prepared to surrender or dilute her controlling ViacomCBS shares. That’s what Malone did to push Discovery and WarnerMedia collectively, so there’s now a template.

This is the hardest promote. Disney does not really want AMC Networks. It’s doing perfectly fine with the content material it has.

But with Disney-owned Hulu licensing a lot of its content material, it is weak to dropping a few of its hit reveals. MGM, for instance, makes “The Handmaid’s Tale.” Now that Amazon has acquired MGM, it is unclear if the sequence will stay on Hulu as soon as that deal closes.

The proprietor of “The Walking Dead,” IFC Films, and Sundance Now might present an adult-themed content material enhance to Hulu. That would steadiness out the strong children’ providing on Disney+ and sports activities on ESPN+. AMC has forecast it will have at least 9 million streaming subscribers by the end of 2021 and 25 million by the finish of 2025. That’s a far cry from Hulu’s current 41.6 million or Disney+’s 103.6 million, but it surely’s proof that there’s a minimum of some viewers for the programming.

And whereas cable is slowly dying, it isn’t useless but, with about 85 million U.S. households nonetheless subscribing to some type of bundled linear TV.

Disney’s ESPN stays the lifeblood of the conventional pay-TV bundle. Bundling AMC Networks’ cable networks with ESPN would shield affiliate charges, as pay-TV suppliers have at all times been detest to drop ESPN.

The Dolan Family controls AMC Networks. The Dolans have possible identified for years that AMC Networks is subscale and will mix with an even bigger media fish. If the Dolans do not need to promote, they will not. But AMC Networks is comparatively tiny at $2.2 billion in market valuation and about $four billion in enterprise worth. Disney might simply purchase the firm in money.

However, Disney’s earlier acquisitions — Pixar, Marvel, Lucas Films — have been for mental property. Does AMC Networks personal sufficient useful IP to make a deal value it for shareholders? And is that IP family-friendly sufficient to mesh with the firm’s theme park enterprise?

That could also be why a Disney-AMC deal hasn’t already occurred.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal is the dad or mum firm of CNBC.

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