10-year Treasury yield jumps after stronger-than-expected March jobs report

10-year Treasury yield jumps after stronger-than-expected March jobs report

Treasury yields jumped on Friday after closely watched nonfarm payrolls data for March surged past expectations.

The rate on the 10-year Treasury jumped more than 9 basis points to 4.4%. The benchmark note on Wednesday briefly touched a new 2024 high of 4.429%.

The 2-year Treasury yield was also higher by 10.9 basis points at 4.75%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%, or 1/100th of a percent.

The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls grew by 303,000 in March, far above expectations for an increase of 200,000 and higher than the downwardly revised 270,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate came out at 3.8%, as Wall Street had expected.

The jobs data factors into the market’s expectations of when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

At its last meeting, the central bank indicated that it still expects three rate cuts by the end of this year. But Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Thursday became the latest high-profile figure to question whether there will be any rate cuts if inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

“If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all,” Kashkari told Pensions & Investments in an interview, adding that the economy has been “very resilient.”

Interest rate futures show that traders do not expect the Fed to adjust rates at the conclusion of its next meeting on May 1, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed fund futures imply a 46.6% likelihood that rates will also stay unchanged at the June gathering. While Kashkari gets to share his views at Federal Open Market Committee meetings, he does not vote until 2026.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the unemployment rate’s move.

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